Quick overview
Reflecting on Q4 of 2025, there remain several sizable red flags that show a struggling jobs market. But, there may be a few emerging signs of cautious optimism.
The unemployment rate has risen, the number of people in payrolled jobs has fallen, and the number of jobs advertised fell again compared to the prior quarter.
The number of working-age people who are economically inactive has fallen, suggesting more are engaging in the labour market and this, combined with the long-term reduction in job vacancies, could be driving some of the increase in unemployment.
Headline stats
- ●The latest unemployment rate up 0.7pp to 5.1% in the latest period Sept-Nov 2025 (from 4.4% in Aug-Oct)
- ●Vacancies have remained broadly flat according to the ONS in the period of Sept-Nov. CV-Library job market analysis, provides additional context to this by looking at Q4 as a whole, which shows vacancies levels slightly down on the prior quarter, down 1.14% .
- ●Payrolled jobs are down 0.6% yoy – 184,000 fewer payrolled jobs in Dec 2025 compared to 2024. This was down 43,000 (0.1pp) from November 2025.
- ●The redundancy rate has been creeping up through 2025, with a slight reduction in the last dataset. 4.9 per 1,000 employees in Sept-Nov, down from 5.3 per 1,000 in Aug-Oct but still well above all other periods since COVID-19.
Cause for optimism?
However, there may be green shoots. Q4 2025 saw more job vacancies advertised than Q4 2024 and at a similar level to Q4 2023.
This positive year-on-year comparison for the quarter provides some optimism that the consistent decline in job vacancies since April 2022 may be flattening. It tallies with ONS data which shows a rolling three-month average plateauing at the back end of 2025.
A CV-Library survey of 508 business and recruitment consultancies in early December 2025 suggested that as many as 87% had paused hiring decisions due to uncertainty around potential policy and tax announcements at the Budget.
It remains to be seen whether these are signals of the green shoots of a more sustainable recovery. According to the CV-Library survey, only 39% planned to resume hiring immediately post budget, with a further 36% continuing to hold off.
Longer term, the same respondents suggested a more upbeat outlook: 36% indicated they would significantly increase hiring and a further 35% said they would slightly increase hiring over the next 12 months.
Hiring sentiment (survey results)
Did you pause hiring decisions pre-budget?
Yes
87%
No
7%
Unsure
6%
Will you resume hiring in the short term post budget?
Yes
36%
Some will resume, some will hold off
12%
No
36%
What are your longer hiring plans for next 12 months:
Significantly increase
36%
Slightly increase
35%
Significantly reduce
11%
Slightly reduce
7%
Freeze hiring
7%
Reduce headcount
5%
With forecasts of lower inflation and interest rate cuts in 2026, and no further cliff-edge costs imposed on businesses in the Autumn Budget, we may expect to see the job market at least stabilise this year.
Section 1: Job supply
Jobs advertised in Q4
CV-Library’s analysis of the whole market in Q4 2025 showed a further drop from Q3 but maintained a level of job vacancies that was significantly above Q4 in 2024 and at the same levels as 2023.
The significant drop off in 2024 was likely a result of the increase to Employer NI Contributions announced at the Budget in October that year.
Year-on–year comparison of job vacancies by sector
Sector hiring trends (YoY)
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Top 10 sectors for roles advertised in Q4
Ranked by volume (largest to smallest).
1
Engineering
377,264
2
Hospitality – Catering
301,501
3
Education
299,012
4
IT – Telecomm
276,288
5
Health
275,987
6
Finance
270,821
7
Construction – Real Estate
247,813
8
Logistics – Distribution
226,976
9
Sales
191,781
10
Social and Civil Services
191,217
Most advertised jobs in Q4 2025 by job title
1
Care assistant
2
Support worker
3
Teaching assistant
4
Cleaner
5
Chef
6
Delivery driver
Salaries:
Analysis of salaries in Q4 2025 shows a mixed picture. While ONS reports overall salary growth is high at 4.7%, this is not being translated into the salaries offered in job advertisements on CV-Library.
| 2025% change in salary compared to prior quarterQ2-1.6%Q3-0.5%Q40.8% |
Salary disclosure
The proportion of jobs advertising a salary has been in decline since the start of 2024 but broadly stabilised in Q4 2025 with just 48% of jobs showing salary details. This may reflect a bottoming out of the trend and does tend to align with a stabilisation of vacancy availability over the same period.
Public sector jobs show a far greater proportion of roles disclosing salary, and although this has also decreased throughout 2025, Q4 showed an increase in transparency.
Section 2: Candidate interest / behaviours
By looking at the number of applications per job, we can see which sectors are the most sought after. But this doesn’t tell the whole story, the attractiveness of a role can also provide an insight by looking at the number of views and the subsequent number of applications. Those with high views, but low applications may indicate a less attractive role and ones where recruiters need to work harder to encourage applications.
Job attractiveness: The higher the number, the more attractive a role is and translates more of the views to an application
Job Demand: Average applications per job – providing an overall view of applications received.
The numbers below are indexed to the average point so the higher number shows jobs that are either more attractive or generating more applications.
Job demand and job attractiveness by sector
Indices shown are relative to average (=100). Higher values indicate more applications per listing / per view.
| Job attractiveness | Index (Avg=100) |
|---|---|
| IT | 171.6 |
| Marketing | 143.1 |
| Consulting | 130.9 |
| Personnel/Recruitment | 127.4 |
| Media | 122.7 |
| Accounting / Financial / Insurance | 121.9 |
| Legal | 117.7 |
| Arts/Graphic Design | 114.3 |
| Administration | 114.3 |
| Sales | 105.4 |
| Telecoms | 103.7 |
| Social Care | 102.8 |
| Military / Emergency / Government | 99.7 |
| Charities | 97.3 |
| Retail/Purchasing | 96.8 |
| Property Services | 96.8 |
| Customer Services | 96.7 |
| Education | 95.9 |
| Public Sector | 94.4 |
| Distribution | 89.3 |
| Hospitality/Hotel | 88.5 |
| Construction | 86.3 |
| Medical / Pharmaceutical / Scientific | 85.6 |
| Engineering | 80.7 |
| Manufacturing / Surveying | 79 |
| Electronics | 78.9 |
| Management | 78.4 |
| Catering | 77.9 |
| Leisure/Tourism | 77.1 |
| Automotive/Aerospace | 71 |
| Agriculture | 53.7 |
Even though sectors like Customer Services, Manufacturing, Hospitality and Construction generate relatively higher levels of applications, they are underperforming when it comes to converting views to applications.
The three sectors with the most jobs advertised in Q4 (Engineering, Hospitality, Education) appear in the bottom half of the table for job attractiveness highlighting a broader recruitment challenge.
This may be down to a combination of lack of salary transparency, skills shortages, or less than compelling job adverts that don’t play to candidate motivations.
Section 3: Payrolled jobs analysis
The latest ONS Labour Market Overview released in January (covering early estimates for December 2025) shows the number of payrolled employees falling to 30.2 million, down 184,000 (-0.6%) on the year. It is also down 43,000 (-0.1%) on the month. with unemployment overall rising to 5.1%.
That headline decline matters for UK employers and candidates because PAYE RTI is one of the fastest-read signals we have on whether employers are adding staff, pausing recruitment, or quietly reducing headcount.
But the data over the year shows that this isn’t a uniform decline. Worryingly, the biggest group to be hit is the one that normally underpins progression, household formation, and the next layer of management – those between 25-34.
The age breakdown: this is a 25–34 story, not a youth story
While the UK government announced an £850 million investment in youth employment in December 2025, it’s those in the 25-34 age group that are facing the greatest hardships.
Change in payrolled employees (Dec 2024 → Dec 2025)
| Age group | Net gain/loss in employment | % change |
|---|---|---|
| 0–17 | -43,030 | -9.4% |
| 18–24 | -21,878 | -0.6% |
| 25–34 | -140,190 | -2.0% |
| 35–49 | +50,760 | +0.5% |
| 50–64 | -80,142 | -1.0% |
| 65+ | +50,345 | +4.1% |
Strikingly, the 25–34 band accounts for roughly 76% of the total annual decline (140,190 of 184,000).
For recruiters, that matters because this 25–34 group represents individuals in their “prime early-career”. This is the cohort that typically moves roles most, steps into line management, and builds the skills and experience that will last them for their working life. If that group is shrinking on payrolls, the knock-on effects will be visible in internal pipelines, bench strength, and succession planning.
This group also has an important impact on the wider economy. Younger Millennials have a relatively high propensity to spend (and are the highest users of the Buy Now Pay Later model), meaning that the impact of reduced income from payrolled employment will reduce spending across the economy, not least on house buying, rent, general retail and leisure.
Meanwhile, employers appear to be holding onto experience. The fact that payrolled employment is rising in the 35–49 band (up around 51,000) and also growing strongly among 65+ workers (up around 50,000, and the fastest growth rate at +4.1%) suggests many organisations are prioritising reliability and immediate output over longer build and train hiring. It might also be the case that AI is helping more experienced employees to undertake the work that was previously given to more junior employees.
The sector picture: consumer-facing jobs are losing out, while health keeps hiring
The latest ONS report also sheds some light on the winners and losers by sector.
| Sector | Year-on-year change (level) | Year-on-year change (%) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Health and social work | +36,711 | — | Largest increase (by level) |
| Transportation and storage | +14,358 | +1.0% | Highest percentage growth |
| Wholesale & retail | -71,741 | — | Largest decrease (by level); rounded to -72,000 in ONS main points |
| Accommodation & food service activities | -69,532 | -3.2% | Weakest percentage change |
The payroll data split shows job gains in health and social work and transportation and storage, while wholesale & retail and accommodation and food are shrinking year-on-year. Those expanding sectors tend to value experience because the work is either compliance-heavy (care) or operationally time-sensitive (logistics).
Why these shifts matter to the wider UK economy
Retail and hospitality are large employers and closely tied to consumer confidence. When those sectors are contracting year-on-year, it often signals softer discretionary spending –which can feed through into slower growth and cautious business investment.
The 25–34 band is where many people build depth in-role, switch into higher productivity firms, and take first leadership steps. A sustained dip here can mean fewer ready now candidates for supervisor/manager roles in 12–24 months, and higher replacement costs later.
ONS notes the latest PAYE RTI estimates are early (based on partial data) and can be revised, but they are still a key real-time barometer used across government and markets.
But while the ONS data is always subject to revision, it does clearly show that the pressure point in terms of age is 25–34, and the story isn’t just about youth. It follows that recruiters and candidates should expect tighter competition for fewer mid-junior moves. If 25–34 payrolls are shrinking, there are likely fewer qualified movers on the market at the exact moment many firms still want job-ready hires.
Source: CV Library
